Gate Research Institute: The Federal Reserve (FED) maintains interest rate unchanged | ETH stake reaches historic high

Summary

1. BTC fluctuates narrowly around $105,000; $2,500 serves as a short-term support level for ETH.
2. The Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates unchanged, with two rate cuts expected in 2025.
3. The total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs has exceeded 10 billion US dollars.
4. Over 20,000 Bitcoin addresses hold a value of over $10 million, accounting for nearly 9.43% of the total BTC supply.
5. The Ethereum staking volume exceeds 35 million coins, setting a new historical high.
6. Gate Launchpool launches SPK, with a total prize pool of 720,000 SPK.

Market Interpretation

Market Commentary

• BTC Market – Last week, BTC fell sharply due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, hitting a low of $103,000 and then stabilizing and rebounding, but the overall operating range was still under pressure, and the subsequent rebound to around $109,000 and $106,000 was blocked. BTC is in a wide range consolidation phase this week, with short-term pressure at $109,000 and support around $103,000. In terms of funds, the daily net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF is still positive, and the single-day inflow data shows certain fluctuations, such as the multi-day inflow of more than $200 million in BlackRock IBIT, indicating that the resilience of institutional buying is still there, but the overall market sentiment is cautious, and the follow-up market may continue to fluctuate in a wide range at a high level.
• ETH Quotes—— ETH is linked to the broader market this week, and the overall performance is a wide range. Affected by market volatility, ETH rose and fell back many times, failed to effectively strategize, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell to around 0.024, and the market share fell to 9.22%. Ethereum spot ETFs have diverged in recent fund flows, sometimes with net inflows, sometimes turning into net outflows, and the short-term sentiment in the market has fluctuated greatly. In the short term, ETH is expected to remain range-bound, with a slightly larger volatility than the broader market.
• Altcoins ——** **The altcoin market continues to exhibit a differentiated pattern, with significant declines in mainstream sectors and a lack of clear collective narrative in the market. The Fear and Greed Index remains in the range of 48-61, reflecting a neutral to cautious market sentiment. Overall, altcoins may continue to maintain differentiation and adjustment in the short term, with investor sentiment slightly leaning towards a wait-and-see approach.
• Futures Market —— In terms of capital flow, BTC and ETH spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for several consecutive days, demonstrating a sustained demand and support from institutional funds. However, there is a certain divergence between the inflow amount and the market reaction, reflecting a volatile short-term trading sentiment. In the past 24 hours, a total of 95,385 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 221 million USD.
• Macroeconomic Data —— U.S. retail sales in May fell by 0.9% month-on-month, a decline greater than market expectations. Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that retail sales dropped by 0.9% last month, exceeding economists' forecasts of a 0.5% decrease. The month-on-month data for April was revised down to show a contraction of 0.1%, whereas the preliminary reading indicated a growth of 0.1%.
• Stablecoins —— The overall market value of stablecoins increased by 0.27% to $251 billion, with further inflow of incremental funds from the over-the-counter market.
• Gas Fee —— Market sentiment has shown a significant pullback following the price movements, and trading activity on the Ethereum chain has also declined. As of June 19, the average Gas fee for the day was 0.689 Gwei.

Popular Concepts

This week, Bitcoin has retraced from its high, and market sentiment is noticeably cautious. Altcoins continue to show a divergent pattern, with mainstream sectors experiencing significant declines. According to Coingecko data, sectors such as ZK, L2, and AI Agents have dropped significantly this week, with declines of approximately 23.2%, 15.1%, and 14.9% respectively over the past seven days. The commonality among these three major sectors lies in their high technical barriers and innovative narratives, all of which belong to previously long-standing hot tracks.

ZK

ZK (zero-knowledge proof) refers to crypto assets that use zero-knowledge proof technology, focusing on privacy protection, scalability and efficient data verification, usually represented by ZK-rollups and privacy public chains, which have both technological innovation and application potential. With the growing demand for privacy and performance in blockchain, ZK projects have risen rapidly and attracted much attention from the market. On the one hand, they attract investment from developers and institutions with high technical barriers and Layer 2 optimization. On the other hand, it has also become the focus of speculation in the capital rotation due to the boom of technical narratives. - The sector has fallen 23.2% in the past seven days, with ZKJ, ZKB and MOZ falling prominently.

L2

The L2 (Layer 2) sector refers to crypto assets based on second-layer blockchain scaling solutions, aimed at improving transaction speed and reducing costs on the main chain, typically represented by Rollups and sidechains, and possesses both performance optimization and ecological expansion potential. With the surge in demand for scalability and low costs in blockchain, L2 projects have rapidly emerged and gained popularity in the market. They attract developers and users with efficient technical architecture and main chain compatibility. - In the past 7 days, this sector has seen a decline of 15.1%, with notable drops in SWAN, GLS, and GEL.

AI Agents

The AI Agents sector refers to crypto assets based on artificial intelligence agent technology, typically centered around autonomous and intelligent applications, combined with blockchain to realize decentralized AI services, possessing technological foresight and ecological expansion potential. As AI technology continues to gain traction in the cryptocurrency market, AI Agents projects have rapidly emerged and are highly sought after by investors. On one hand, they attract developers and institutional investors with intelligent narratives and cross-domain applications; on the other hand, due to the wave of AI innovations, they have become key targets for speculative funds in hot sector rotations. - In the past 7 days, this sector has seen a decline of 14.9%, with previously popular tokens such as AI16Z, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT all dropping over 10%.

This Week Focus

The Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates unchanged, and is expected to cut rates twice in 2025.

At 2 AM today, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, maintaining its stance for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations. Additionally, the Fed's dot plot indicates that it maintains its expectation for interest rate cuts this year, with two cuts anticipated in 2025.

According to the latest market data, the U.S. interest rate futures price predicts a 71% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September, up from only 60% previously. The U.S. interest rate futures reflect a 46 basis point cut by 2025, showing little change compared to before the Federal Reserve's statement.

The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged aligns with market expectations and provides a stable policy environment for risk assets in the short term. Although inflation is close to the target, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, indicating a reserved attitude towards economic overheating and premature policy easing. The dot plot maintains the outlook for interest rate cuts this year, reinforcing the signal of "maintaining high rates for a longer time." Futures markets show a 71% probability of a rate cut in September, and market expectations for easing policies have warmed, which may support elastic assets such as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks, but volatility remains unavoidable, and investors still need to pay attention to short-term sentiment changes.

Ink announced the launch of its native token INK, aimed at airdropping to early participants of the liquidity protocol.

Recently, the Layer 2 network Ink announced the launch of its native token INK, with a total supply permanently capped at 1 billion tokens, and no further minting will occur through governance in the future. The governance of this chain is still under the Optimism superchain, and the INK token is applicable to users and the application layer. The airdrop of the INK token will be targeted at early participants of liquidity protocols.

The move highlights the long-term stability of its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, where the INK token does not participate in the on-chain governance of the Optimism superchain, but instead focuses on incentivizing users and developers to drive DeFi innovation and capital coordination. This change aims to enhance the liquidity and user engagement of the Ink ecosystem. Some users believe that the number of participants is small, and the airdrop may bring higher returns. The launch of INK marks a new phase of the DeFi ecosystem for Layer 2 networks, potentially attracting more developers and capital to the Optimism superchain.

Truth Social plans to launch a dual ETF for BTC and ETH

On June 16, Truth Social, a social platform under Trump, submitted an S-1 form to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), intending to launch the "Truth Social Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF (B.T.)." The fund aims to adopt an asset allocation of 75% Bitcoin and 25% Ethereum, providing investors with a simplified dual-coin exposure, marking its further expansion in the crypto finance sector.

This move follows the previous single Bitcoin ETF application submitted by Truth Social, highlighting the Trump family's ongoing bet on crypto assets. Given its political influence and brand effect, if this product is approved, it is expected to attract significant market attention and may accelerate the mainstream adoption of crypto assets.

On the other hand, the ETF is still subject to SEC Form 19b-4 approval, a process that can take up to 240 days, and is subject to regulatory uncertainty and competitive pressures from traditional institutions. At the same time, Trump Media's recent $250 million funding round to build up a Bitcoin reserve and increase its crypto strategy, but its stock price (DJT) has fallen about 2% recently, reflecting the market's wait-and-see attitude towards its expansion path. The involvement of political factors may also trigger greater scrutiny and volatility risks, which deserve investors' continued attention.

Highlight Data

Ethereum spot ETF total net assets exceed 10 billion U.S. dollars

As of June 19, 2025, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs reached $10.103 billion, accounting for 3.27% of Ethereum's total market capitalization. Ethereum spot ETFs have recorded strong inflows over the past six consecutive weeks. In the past three weeks, BlackRock's ETHA has led the way with a net inflow of $683 million, and its AUM has reached $4.18 billion, highlighting its dominance among institutional investors.

The net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF has surpassed $10 billion, indicating that the ETF has become an important component of the Ethereum market. The Ethereum ecosystem continues to expand, with widespread applications in DeFi and NFTs, driving network activity and ETH demand. If the regulatory environment remains friendly and institutional participation continues to rise, the ETF is expected to further drive up ETH prices while attracting more investors into the crypto ecosystem, strengthening Ethereum's network effects and value foundation.

Over 20,000 Bitcoin addresses hold assets worth over $10 million, accounting for nearly 9.43% of the total BTC supply.

According to Alphractal data, currently over 20,000 Bitcoin addresses hold a value exceeding $10 million, totaling about $200 billion, accounting for nearly 9.43% of the total BTC supply and more than 21% of the "realized market value."

The logic of "Realized Cap" operates by considering the transfer of BTC into a wallet as a "buy" and the transfer out as a "sell". By calculating the average cost basis of each wallet multiplied by the holding amount, we can derive the total "Realized Cap" across the network. This metric reflects the total capital that has entered the Bitcoin market through real on-chain activities.

In the current Bitcoin market, there are over 20,000 large addresses holding more than ten million dollars, concentrating about 200 billion dollars in assets. These addresses control nearly 10% of the Bitcoin supply, indicating a trend towards concentrated capital distribution. The cost basis of these funds mostly comes from real on-chain transactions, and the "realized market cap" is an important indicator of the inflow of such funds, accounting for over 20%. This shows that institutions and high-net-worth users have a strong willingness to allocate Bitcoin, and most of these funds are held long-term, which stabilizes the market and may also amplify the market influence of large holders.

Ethereum staking amount exceeds 35 million coins, hitting an all-time high.

According to CryptoQuant data, the current amount of staked Ethereum exceeds 35 million coins, reaching a historic high. Meanwhile, the number of "accumulated addresses" (i.e., wallet addresses that have never had a sell record) has also reached an all-time high, currently holding 22.8 million ETH.

Behind the recent strength of Ethereum (ETH) is the multiple resonances of on-chain data, institutional funds and market sentiment. The pledge volume and accumulated addresses have reached a new high, and the proportion of long-term holders of "diamond hands" has increased, and the market selling pressure has weakened significantly. At the same time, institutional funds continued to accumulate through ETFs, and the overall inflow trend was strong, with inflows exceeding $1 billion in the past month. BlackRock and other institutions have repeatedly increased their holdings of more than 10,000 ETH in a single day, forming a bottom support of "buying more and more".

Potential risks need to pay attention to short-term divergence and income competition: derivatives traders are cautious in the short term (active bid-to-ask ratio <1), which may trigger a pullback; At the same time, the annualized return of ETH staking drops to 3%, which is lower than that of some stablecoins (such as 6% of sUSDe), or diverts profit-seeking funds. However, in the long run, Ethereum is shifting from "staking scale" to "ecological value revaluation", and institutions are positioning it as a "real income asset" (such as the basis of RWA tokenization), superimposed by the end of 2025 "The Purge" upgrade to optimize network efficiency, the fundamental narrative continues to strengthen, and a new round of value discovery cycle may have begun.

Gate New Listing

The new project to pay attention to this week is: Spark Protocol

Spark Protocol was born in the MakerDAO ecosystem and is a decentralized lending market with deeply integrated direct lending features. Users can obtain DAI stablecoin loans by collateralizing mainstream crypto assets such as ETH, stETH, and sDAI.

Official information shows that Spark Protocol is positioned as an "on-chain capital allocation platform" and has achieved a comprehensive layout in three major areas: decentralized finance (DeFi), centralized finance (CeFi), and real-world assets (RWA), managing a fund scale of up to 3.86 billion dollars. Its core mechanism lies in dynamically balancing asset allocation through algorithms based on real-time market conditions, significantly improving capital efficiency while maintaining a conservative risk management strategy.

Preparation

• Gate Account: Register and complete user verification;
• Recharge assets: Ensure that there are enough SPK tokens in the account, this Launchpool only supports SPK staking;

Participate in Staking

• Time window: until June 25th, 8 PM Beijing time
• Operation steps: First, log in to Gate and go to the 【Launchpool】 page; second, select the SPK project and click 【Participate Now】; finally, enter the staking amount and confirm to participate.
• Total mining amount: 720,000 SPK
• Annualized Yield: 636%

Financing Weekly Report

This week, several projects successfully completed financing, involving a wide range of applications in various fields such as infrastructure and developer platforms. According to RootData statistics, from June 13 to June 19, a total of 15 projects announced that they had secured funding. Here are some highlights of popular projects:

EIGEN

Completed a $70 million Series B financing on June 17, with participation from a16z.

EigenCloud is a protocol built on top of Ethereum that introduces the concept of restaking, a new primitive in cryptoeconomic security. This primitive allows for the re-staking of $ETH on the consensus layer. Users who stake $ETH can opt-in to the EigenCloud smart contract to re-stake their $ETH and extend cryptoeconomic security to other applications on the network.

Yupp

Completed a $33 million financing on June 13. Investors include institutions such as a16z and Coinbase Ventures.

Yupp is an AI blockchain platform that allows anyone to discover and compare the latest artificial intelligence models for free. Users can input prompts and view responses generated by multiple AIs in parallel, selecting the best result to form a "preference packet". This data is used for the post-training and evaluation of AI models. The platform leverages blockchain technology to ensure transparency in the evaluation process, users can provide feedback to receive corresponding rewards, and AI developers obtain verifiable training data.

PublicAI

Completed a $8 million financing on June 17, with participation from institutions such as MH Ventures and YGG.

PublicAI.io is driving the development of the AI ecosystem by providing high-quality, on-demand AI training data, while enabling individuals worldwide to monetize their expertise. The team is based in the San Francisco Bay Area and is dedicated to meeting the demand for high-quality AI data from businesses, creating substantial income opportunities for individuals.

Focus Next Week

tokens unlocked

According to data from Tokenomist, the market will see significant token unlocks in the next 7 days (2025.6.21 - 2025.6.27). The top 3 unlocks are as follows:

• MRS will unlock approximately $193 million worth of tokens in the next 7 days, making it one of the largest token unlock projects in June. This unlock will be used to fund its artificial intelligence partnerships.
• H1 will unlock approximately 3.43 million dollars in value in the next 7 days, accounting for 1.04% of the total locked amount.
• ID will complete a linear unlock of tokens worth approximately $11.48 million in the next 7 days, accounting for 3.63% of the circulating supply.
  Reference Source X, https://x.com/Grayscale/status/1927463971335909625 defillama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins Alphractal, https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1934997211890524167 Gate, https://www.gate.com/zh/launchpool/SPK?pid=319

Disclaimer Investment in the cryptocurrency market involves high risks. It is recommended that users conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products they are purchasing before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.