On June 19, 2025, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations.
The Fed said uncertainty about the outlook has diminished but remains elevated. The Fed lowered its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% while raising its inflation forecast to 3%.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that it is expected to cut interest rates twice for a total of 50 basis points in 2025, consistent with the March forecast. However, in 2026, it is anticipated to cut rates by only 25 basis points, compared to the previous forecast of a 50 basis point cut. Among the 19 officials, 7 believe there will be no rate cuts in 2025, 2 expect one cut, 8 expect two cuts, and 2 expect three cuts.
Interest Rate Decision Full Text
Despite the fluctuations in net exports affecting the data performance, recent indicators show that economic activity continues to maintain a robust expansion. The unemployment rate remains low, the labor market conditions are still solid, and inflation levels are still slightly above the normal range.
The committee is committed to achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target over the long term. Although the uncertainty in the economic outlook has eased somewhat, it remains high. The committee is highly attentive to the risks faced by both aspects of its "dual mandate."
In support of these objectives, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%. In assessing whether and when to further adjust this target range, the Committee will closely assess the latest data, changes in the outlook and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasuries, agency bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee is firmly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its target level of 2%.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the committee will continue to focus on the impact of newly released information on the economic outlook. If risks arise that may hinder the achievement of the committee's goals, the committee is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy when appropriate. The committee's assessment will take into account a range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, as well as financial and international dynamics.
The committee members supporting this monetary policy decision include: Chair Jerome H. Powell, Vice Chair John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Susan M. Collins, Lisa D. Cook, Austan D. Goolsbee, Philip N. Jefferson, Adriana D. Kugler, Alberto G. Musalem, Jeffrey R. Schmid, and Christopher J. Waller.
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The Federal Reserve (FED) resolution full text: hold steady, continue to expect two rate cuts this year.
On June 19, 2025, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations.
The Fed said uncertainty about the outlook has diminished but remains elevated. The Fed lowered its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% while raising its inflation forecast to 3%.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that it is expected to cut interest rates twice for a total of 50 basis points in 2025, consistent with the March forecast. However, in 2026, it is anticipated to cut rates by only 25 basis points, compared to the previous forecast of a 50 basis point cut. Among the 19 officials, 7 believe there will be no rate cuts in 2025, 2 expect one cut, 8 expect two cuts, and 2 expect three cuts.
Interest Rate Decision Full Text
Despite the fluctuations in net exports affecting the data performance, recent indicators show that economic activity continues to maintain a robust expansion. The unemployment rate remains low, the labor market conditions are still solid, and inflation levels are still slightly above the normal range.
The committee is committed to achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target over the long term. Although the uncertainty in the economic outlook has eased somewhat, it remains high. The committee is highly attentive to the risks faced by both aspects of its "dual mandate."
In support of these objectives, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%. In assessing whether and when to further adjust this target range, the Committee will closely assess the latest data, changes in the outlook and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasuries, agency bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee is firmly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its target level of 2%.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the committee will continue to focus on the impact of newly released information on the economic outlook. If risks arise that may hinder the achievement of the committee's goals, the committee is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy when appropriate. The committee's assessment will take into account a range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, as well as financial and international dynamics.
The committee members supporting this monetary policy decision include: Chair Jerome H. Powell, Vice Chair John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Susan M. Collins, Lisa D. Cook, Austan D. Goolsbee, Philip N. Jefferson, Adriana D. Kugler, Alberto G. Musalem, Jeffrey R. Schmid, and Christopher J. Waller.