Interview with Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin rushes 250,000 magnesium, altcoins will not rise, I do not open leveraged contracts

Arthur Hayes, the inventor of cryptocurrency perpetual contracts, talks about his expectations for the future economy, he has spent most of his career in Asia, knows the financial markets of Asia well, and he answers financial questions that no Asian politician can answer. This article is from the Bonnie Blockchain video, collated, compiled and written by Deeptide TechFlow. (Synopsis: Arthur Hayes Full text: Circle is grossly overvalued, but I advise you not to go short) (Background supplement: Arthur Hayes: Bank of Japan "needs conditions to raise interest rates" or restart QE: Bitcoin, risk assets will skyrocket) Original title: "Key! Your cryptocurrency may not go up! 但這些資產可以買│Arthur Hayes│比特幣大會 Vegas 2025 feat. ⁨@TheDavidLinReport》 ・嘉賓： Arthur Hayes ・主持人：Bonnie & David Lin ・播出日期：2025 年 6 月 16 日 要點總結 本期Podcast加密貨幣永續合約的發明人 Arthur Hayes，大聊自己對未來經濟的預期， He has spent most of his career in Asia and knows the financial markets of Asia inside out. He answered financial questions that Asian politicians can't answer. How does he see the next trend of the currency circle? Why do you think most of your altcoins will never rise again? How does he judge the price movement of Bitcoin? Summary of Brilliant Views ・The price of Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by the end of this year. Retail interest in Bitcoin remains strong because it has performed so well and Bitcoin is the most easily understood of all crypto assets. Most altcoins may not rise again this year because they lack "product-market fit", that is, their products do not meet market demand, and these projects usually have no income to return to token holders. Compared to stocks or gold, Bitcoin's scarcity and decentralization give it a unique advantage in dealing with currency depreciation and liquidity. When choosing altcoins, focus on "narrative", that is, the story behind a project and the logic it attracts investors. ・When buying altcoins, be rational and avoid blindly following the trend. Relations between China and the United States will drift apart, but not end as quickly as some predict. Most traders don't really care if the platform is completely decentralized, they value liquidity and rich trading products. ・There is not much innovation in the products of each trading platform, and the fees are basically the same. Therefore, the core of the competition is marketing. There may be a lot of conflict between generations, and the government is likely to choose to print a lot of money to deal with this problem. For governments, this is the simplest and most straightforward solution. Bitcoin Price Expectations David: Can you specify the timeline for Bitcoin to reach one million dollars in 2028? You mentioned earlier that the bitcoin price will reach $125,000 by the end of this year, is this prediction still valid? Arthur Hayes: I still think the bitcoin price can reach $250,000 by the end of the year. While there may be some volatility along the way, this is my goal for the end of the year. As for the prediction that Bitcoin will reach one million dollars, my hypothesis is based on the fact that the world's major economies may print about $9 trillion in currency in the next few years. For example, the U.S. government plans to support institutions that are allowed to create mortgages, which they expect to print $5 trillion. In addition, due to the implementation of the supplementary leverage exemption policy, the banking system may buy up to $1 trillion in assets, including assets sold by foreign investors. I think the banking system will become more flexible as a result, because they will no longer have to worry about capital requirements related to Treasuries, and will be able to lend more to the real economy of the United States. This will lead to more credit support for industries such as manufacturing, which will eventually flow into the cryptocurrency market as well. David: When the US Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing in 2020, we saw gains in almost all asset classes, not just Bitcoin. This is indeed positive for Bitcoin, but from your analysis, it seems that it may also be good news for other assets, such as stocks and gold. Why do you think Bitcoin will perform better than other assets in this situation? Arthur Hayes: The main reason is that the supply of Bitcoin is fixed, and its total amount is strictly limited to 21 million. And in terms of market capitalization, the Bitcoin market is relatively small, so when a lot of money pours into a relatively small market, the price rises rapidly. This is also the reason why Bitcoin has been the best performing financial asset over the past 15 years. Compared to stocks or gold, Bitcoin's scarcity and decentralization give it a unique advantage in dealing with currency depreciation and liquidity. Bitcoin's new high, retail interest missing? David: The market is changing fast. Do you think the current monetary easing (money printing) will trigger more "Degen" activity? Arthur Hayes: Yes, I agree. If you don't have a lot of financial assets in your hands, but you see inflation eroding your purchasing power, you may choose to make risky investments with what little savings you have. David: Why does "Degen" activity seem to be decreasing now compared to 2021? I'm referring to retail interest in altcoins. In fact, some people who look at the views of cryptocurrency-related channels find that the number of views is significantly lower now than it was four years ago, even though the prices of Bitcoin and many other crypto assets have reached new highs. Arthur Hayes: I think the main reason is that many altcoins are not performing well. Their pricing is problematic and often overestimated. When you seriously ask, "Okay, your project is live, the hype is over, so where are the customers?" Where is the income?" The answer is often "we have nothing." However, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of these projects could be as high as $5 billion. In this case, how do you make it grow in value by another 10x? It's very difficult. It's relatively easy to go from $500 million to $5 billion, but going from $10 billion to $100 billion becomes very difficult on a marginal price basis. So, I think the price of these altcoins is generally too high to attract new investors. David: Some people say that Bitcoin is now seen more as an institutional investment vehicle, so retail interest in it is waning. Do you think this argument is valid? Arthur Hayes: Retail interest in Bitcoin remains strong because it has performed so well and Bitcoin is the most understandable of all crypto assets. Your altcoins may not be going up anymore Bonnie: Everyone is talking about whether copycat season is coming? Some people say that there are too many low-quality projects in this cycle. What do you think of the current situation? Arthur Hayes: I don't think most altcoins will rise again this year because they lack "product-market fit", i.e. their products do not meet market demand. In addition, these projects often have no income to...