In-depth analysis of misalignment arbitrage opportunities on Pendle

Original author: hoeem

Original translation: johyyn, BlockBeats

Reprinted: Oliver, Mars Finance

Editor’s Note: In Pendle's DeFi protocol, Yield Token (YT) represents the "future income rights" of a certain yield-bearing asset, and the current market pricing of csUSDL-YT is severely underestimated. This article analyzes the potential value of the Coinshift points airdrop, pointing out that although on the surface the YT yield is not as stable as PT, its essence of "points as capital" determines its extremely high leverage potential and airdrop arbitrage value, making it one of the most cost-effective gaming opportunities in the current market.

The following is the original content (the original content has been rearranged for better readability and understanding)

Can you imagine achieving a 260% return on investment with stablecoins in less than two months? Right now, there is such a mispricing opportunity in front of us: buy YT-csUSDL on Pendle.

What is YT?

YT is Yield Token, one of the core mechanisms of Pendle. You can trade the future yield rights of a specific yield-bearing asset through it.

When csUSDL (the Paxos-supported government bond stablecoin) is tokenized as SY, it will be split into two parts:

1.PT (Principal Token): Represents fixed income with lower risk;

2.YT (Yield Token): Represents the rights to future earnings, with significant volatility, but often underestimated by the market.

The special thing is that in addition to earnings, YT can also obtain a large number of airdrop points, but these earnings are often not correctly priced by the market.

Current arbitrage opportunity: YT-csUSDL

Assuming you invest $1,000 to buy csUSDL YT maturing on July 31, 2025:

Base APY (csUSDL): Approximately 4%

Market implied APY: approximately 10%

Current YT price: approximately 0.0143 US dollars

Purchaseable units: approximately 70,130

Pendle Points Multiplier: 1x

Daily Coinshift Points: 30

It seems like you are paying a high price for low returns? But the biggest value is actually that the rewards from points are overlooked by the market, while the core issue is obvious: if you can lock in a 10% return, why accept a 4% return? The essence of the answer is: Points = Capital.

Why is this operation feasible?

Although most users ignore yield tokens (YT) due to superficial yield differences (4% vs underlying asset 10%), their value misjudgment stems from the failure to price Points as Capital — the 6% implied yield gap reflects the market's systematic undervaluation of points. Holding YT generates 30 SHIFT points daily, and if held until maturity at 55 days, a total of 115,715,017 points can be accumulated; at this moment, the core question must be answered: how to implement accurate valuation of this implicit capital?

Airdrop Value Assessment

Holding period: 55 days

Total Points Earnings:

70,130 × 30 × 55 = 115,715,017 points

Assumption:

1. Current total points: 7.6 billion

2. Daily Growth: 300 Million

3. Airdrop Time: 55 days later

4. Total airdrop points expected: 24.1 billion

5. Airdrop Ratio: 5%

6. Token Generation Event Fully Diluted Valuation (TGE FDV): 150 million USD

According to the above estimate, each point is worth approximately 0.0000311 US dollars.

So your total points value = 115,715,017 × 0.0000311 = 3,601.09 USD

Plus the basic earnings of 6 dollars

Total return is approximately $3,607.09

In other words, it achieved a ROI of 260.7% in less than two months!

Conservative estimate

Even if the FDV is cut down to 75 million USD, an approximate return rate of 80% can still be achieved; considering Coinshift's latest financing valuation is 150 million USD, if investors wish to profit, the future market value will most likely only be higher, thus this valuation is reasonable and has reference value.

Note: The formula for FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) is: Fully Diluted Valuation = Maximum Supply * Current Price.

Leverage Strategy: 68x Points Profit Leverage

YT is a high-leverage asset, you only need to pay 1.5% of csUSDL to buy its future returns,

This means:

Any increase in profits will be amplified by leverage.

At the same time, you also earn high multiplier reward points (Shift Points);

You can sell at any time or set a limit sell order for flexible exit.

Why is the current market favorable for you?

Most DeFi users are rushing to lock in stable returns with PT; this has led to a decline in the implied yield of YT, making the price cheaper; for users who understand how to analyze mispricing opportunities, the cheaper YT actually means higher potential returns. Moreover, you can sell YT at any time or place a sell order; even if you exit early, you can still retain the points you have earned.

Summary

Stake the stablecoin csUSDL in the Coinshift airdrop to earn up to 260% controllable returns in less than 2 months, with the option to exit at any time, suitable for investors seeking high odds opportunities.

YT is not suitable for those "stable yield farmers" who only want to earn 6% returns; it is a tool for capital allocators who are willing to take reasonable risks and pursue asymmetrical opportunities. If you understand the mechanism of Pendle and have confidence in Coinshift, then this is one of the cleanest arbitrage opportunities in the current DeFi market.

Of course, remember: DYOR, conduct your own risk simulation, and allocate your positions reasonably. Once the market discovers this operation, the price of YT will no longer be low.